Archive for the ‘Forecast’ Category

Pharmaceutical Drug Sales Outlook Mixed

Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

IMS Health released data today indicating that pharmaceutical drug sales growth will slow globally to between 4% and 6% down from 7% last year. Generic drugs and patent expirations will continue to pressure brand drugs.

However, drug sales globally are expected to be up for 2010, growing 5% worldwide. Much of the growth is expected to come from China and India. One challenge for leading biopharma companies will be the large amount of fake drugs in these countries as well as established generic competitors. Successful branded biopharma products need a solid reputation for safety and superiority if consumers are to be expected to pay substantially more for them.

IMS Health predicts that the top disease therapy growth areas will be: diabetes, cancer, HIV, and multiple sclerosis.

http://bit.ly/Pharma_Forecast_2010

http://bit.ly/Drug_Sales_2010

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Pharmaceutical Sales Slow- New Poll on CME Change

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

Today IMS announced that pharmaceutical sales were slower this past year. There was a 1.3% increase in 2008 for a total sales of $291 billion. This percentage compares to an increase of 8% in 2006. Slowing sales aren’t surprising given the state of the economy and continuing erosion of patent protected products. Still this is better than the percentage loss in the auto industry (Ford experienced a 34% decline in sales late in 2008).

Sales could rebound somewhat if the economy picks up in 2009 but potential changes in the healthcare system remain a significant variable.

The top selling category was anti-psychotic medications- possibly a reflection of the sharp economic decline in the U.S.

The other leading concern currently are changes in the CME field. Give your input by taking our poll on the home page and come back to our site for more on CME over the coming months. If you took our recent poll on the FDA commissioner and voted for Margaret Hamburg, you were right! She is the current pick by President Obama.

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Lessons from the DIA Marketing Pharmaceuticals in a Time of Change Conference

Friday, February 27th, 2009

After two intensive days, I’m at the DIA Marketing Pharmaceuticals in a Time of Change conference, I’m back in the office and reflecting on lessons learned. The overwhelming sentiment this year was that “time of change” was a serious understatement.

Continuing medical education is undergoing revolutionary change unprecedented in the history of the field due to intense environmental and political pressure. Numerous companies will or have voluntarily or involuntarily exited the field and consolidation can be expected to continue until a new equilibrium is reached.

Overall the pharmaceutical industry is being buffeted by the same political and economic changes that are affecting other industries. Because the pharmaceutical industry had already been preparing for change (due to loss of cash cow products) and because healthcare products are necessities the industry is likely to fare somewhat better than others.

However, regulations on both the state and federal level are changing rapidly requiring companies to invest money and manpower in keeping on top of current requirements. In addition, technological changes are altering long held marketing strategies forcing companies to wade into untested waters just at the time the regulations are in flux and legal penalties are high for transgressions.

This year won’t be for the faint of heart but for those who enjoy challenges, there will be an abundance to choose from.

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BioPharma on the Rise

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

When I founded Hughes BioPharma Advisers in 2005, the term biopharma was used infrequently. I sometimes got blank stares or queries like, “What is biopharma anyway?”.

Now with the purchase of Wyeth by Pfizer and the pending sale of Genentech to Roche, biopharma is ascending. The large pharmaceutical companies are looking more than ever to biotech companies for creative new products. What’s even more exciting is that these biotech companies aren’t simply being engulfed but are changing the whole perspective of large pharma companies. Biotech products are being looked at as the future of the industry.

Small molecule pharmaceutical products aren’t going to go away but we can expect to see a blending of them in product portfolios.

This change will be good for both the pharma and biotech industries as well as for patients. Pharma companies have the cash to purchase biotech companies. Biotech companies are in desperate need of funding. Selling to a pharma company keeps their products in the pipeline. Patients benefit by having more and, hopefully, better treatment choices.

The future of pharma looks more and more like biopharma.

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